The challenge of the expansionist Chinese maritime juggernaut has thrown international order, institutions and laws into a state of deep turmoil. It has once again brought to the fore the limits and exhaustion of international law as a force and reinforces its definition by Austin as mere positive international morality.

For decades now, China has developed its economic model dependent on massive market barriers, heavy state subsidies, currency manipulation, product dumping, forced technology transfers, and the theft of intellectual property and trade secrets on a grand scale. All in absolute disregard of and manipulation of international laws and institutions by whatever means possible, ranging from threats, and cohesion to bribes. The subversion and undermining of economic and diplomatic freedom of sovereign nations through the belt and road project is one of the worst kept secrets of the Chinese Communist Party (CCP).

Over the course of the last few months, while the rest of the world grappled with the infamous Chinese export of Covid19, Beijing has prioritised tightening its control over all disputed territories. It has asserted control over Hong Kong with a brutal crackdown on any democratic dissent armed with the new draconian National Security Law, intruded into Taiwan’s airspace, trained guns on the Philippine Navy, harassed Malaysian vessels, sunk a Vietnamese fishing ship, rammed a Japanese coast guard vessel, reignited a deadly border conflict with India, and conducted cyber attacks and economic coercion against Australia. Not only this, many countries including America, Australia and even an ally like Russia has recently uncovered Chinese espionage networks stealing crucial state secrets and propaganda machineries operating in universities, running misinformation campaigns to subvert democratic institutions.

These developments have thrown into stark relief the fact that Chinese ambition cannot be placated with mere diplomacy. Such efforts have so far only played out to one outcome – China building up enough wealth, strength and clout to be in a position to take what it wants.

China continues to assert its hegemony in the geo-strategically crucial Indo-Pacific region, especially the South China Sea which handles roughly one-third of the world’s maritime trade. The Sydney-based United States Studies Centre in its report titled  “Averting crisis: American Strategy, Military Spending and Collective Defence in the Indo-Pacific” warns that the balance of power in the Indo-Pacific region has already tilted in China’s favour as a result of Beijing’s massive investment in modernization of its armed forces. China’s growing military might in what is known as the first island chain which stretches from Japan and the Ryukyu Islands archipelago down to Taiwan and the Philippines, provides it with the coercive leverage it would need to quickly seize coveted territory or overturn other aspects of the status quo by pursuing a fait accompli strategy.

The writing on the wall is clear – USA acting alone or with occasional allies can no longer maintain the balance of power required to protect the status quo. The regional powers will have to play a much more proactive role that may very well come at the cost of antagonising China but then again, even now despite all possible diplomatic restraints and engagements, China has not shown itself to be a power that is peaceful or restrained.

Post the Galwan incident, New Delhi has come out with a slew of economic sanctions against Chinese businesses signalling an end to its policy of bifurcating security concerns and economic interests while dealing with China. India has also significantly ramped up its defence procurements both domestically and internationally. China’s attempts to encircle India through its string of pearls in the Indian Ocean region, CPEC (China-Pakistan Economic Corridor), and by leveraging its Belt and Road initiative to alienate India in its immediate neighbourhood has motivated New Delhi to mark a departure from its historic approach of strategic autonomy as enshrined in NAM (non-alignment movement) in its foreign policy.

It is perhaps the first time that all the three major democratic powers of the Indo-Pacific region, find their strategic interest aligned in perfect harmony, the lack of which was the cause of premature death of the idea of Quadrilateral Security dialogue, more popularly known as QUAD (between India, Japan, Australia and the United States of America) back in 2007. The group has been meeting biannually since 2017, resuscitated by concerns about China’s aggressive rise, threatening peace in the Indo-Pacific region. It is, perhaps time that the QUAD starts to take on a more proactive role and posturing in the region. With the combined resources of the QUAD countries far exceeding China’s, it can become the muscle International Law needs to make China tow the line of modern civilized nations.

As goes the old saying ‘Bhay bin hoye na preet’ (there is no compliance without the fear of penalty) because might was, is, and always will be right.

Marex Media